Thursday, October 08, 2009

Latest EKOS poll reveals a big problem for the conservatives.

By now you have all seen the numbers from the latest EKOS poll and it does not look good for the Liberals anywhere in the country. Anywhere in the country that is except for ALBERTA.

Yes your eyes are not deceiving you, I said Alberta.

Take a look at the numbers: While the conservatives are up EVERYWHERE in the country, and some times by as much as 5%, the conservatives actually went down in Alberta 2.1%! Worse yet are the Calgary numbers where the conservatives have actually went down a whopping 13.9%!

If this keeps up PM Harper had better be careful or he might not get re-elected in his own riding of Calgary Southwest.

Why is this happening? The answer is simple.

This guy is so toxic that he has done the impossible in the most conservative leaning province in Canada; he managed to actually derail the Harper juggernaut that has swept across the entire country including Quebec and Atlantic Canada. That is some accomplishment.

Sorry Rob, I know you are a supporter of his but there is NO other possible explanation as to why this has happened.


robbie said...

Pretty surprising that this is how Steady Eddie of the "nice guys can win" campaign turned out.

What is it about him for you?

Ardvark said...

I question his conservative credentials, he squandered the surplus, creeping nanny state policies, the big government mentality, and the kicker was the letter that I got from his office on the AHRC.

If the PC party is to survive and flourish in Alberta, he has to go.

Anonymous said...

I see another large number right above it... the MOE is 12.45%. So it may be correct, or half that, or completly incorrect. But that's polling for ya!

wilson said...

Calgary (MoE 12.45)
Conservatives: 48.1 (-13.9)
Liberals: 22.7 (+3.1)
NDP: 10.0 (+6.7)
Green: 19.1 (+4.1)

Last federal election, I did not vote Conservative.
I liked the Cons Indy better.
and there was no chance in hell that any other party was going to get in, even if there was a CPC/Con Indy vote split.

IMO, that's what you are seeing in Calgary.
It is so boring being a Conservative voter in Alberta,
yah sometimes want to shake things up a bit, when no harm will be done.

robbie said...

13% margin of error :0, still I find it believable. I have the same problems with him. Not only did he not express any concern about the HRC's ruling regarding that Red Deer pastor, his government supported it. I get the impression it's all about doing the fashionable thing for him, regardless of rights or principles.

Ardvark said...

Aside from the federal/provincial thing going on with these numbers and yes the the MOE is high but if you look at this one from yesterday something real is going on.

Reid said...

When Klein was Premier it was usually the Alberta Premier torpedoing the Conservatives in the ROC. Stelmach is so bad he's managed to turn this on it's head and torpedo the Conservatives in Alberta.

Anonymous said...

I believe that this decrease in Conservative Party approval is happening because us legitimate small-c fiscal, social and judicial conservatives have given up on the left-plunging, conservative in name only (CINO) leader.

Even prior to the recession many of us were watching Harper increase the size of the government, kiss Quebec's ass, massively increased spending, appoint left wing judges, make insane appointments of a commie from Winnipeg as ambassador to Washington, defund the Gun Registry and lock the door, and scorn and social conservative legislation.

Since 2006 it has quickly come very clear to us genuine small-c conservatives that we are not represented in Harper's party nor the House of Commons

Incremental conservatism is simply an excuse use by our disingenuous leader to govern as a liberal. I assure you that If Harper continues to refuse to listen to his small-c fiscal, social and judicial base there will be a lot more leakage in his conservative support.


Anonymous said...

I can't blame this one on 'Steady Eddie'; the federal Conservatives did it on their own. If any party has abandoned its conservative values, it is the government in power in Ottawa.
Stelmach has his own in-house disaster, but he didn't have anything to do with the Ottawa bailout of the auto industry, or the federal deficit. I've switched my allegiance to the Wildrose Alliance provincially and, if there was a conservative alternate to the present Conservative party, I'd do that as well.

Ardvark said...

So you guys think that Alberta has started to turn on the CPC at the same time as the rest of the country have embraced them?

The timing on that alone is enough to make me question the premise. Sure there may be some blowback concerning CPC polices but I doubt that the change in support would not have shown up in earlier polls; remember that the difference in the numbers is from 1 poll to the next and most of the things mentioned would have shown up months ago.

BTW which one of you out there broke the Blogging Tory aggregator?

The_Iceman said...

Remember that when national polls are dissected regionally, the margin of error increases substantially, but that doesn't necessarily mean that you are wrong.

cantuc said...

The liberal numbers went down more than the conservatives . The ndp went up 3 points . Might be just some people saying , " look , Stephen , you're straying kind of left so I might as well vote left ". I've done it myself .

Ardvark said...

13.9 % in Calgary, the home of our PM.

Anonymous said...

"I question his conservative credentials, he squandered the surplus, creeping nanny state policies, the big government mentality"

Surely, you are talking about Harper there.

Ardvark said...

Not really. I know where the PM stands but with Stelmach not so much.

cantuc said...

OK , i missed that but then its got one hell of a margin of error Calgary (MoE 12.45)
, not that I'm taking comfort in it , but still might be some of the same thing , lot of people singin " get back ", maybe . Fascinating .

Ardvark said...

Having the numbers go the opposite direction in Alberta vs the rest of the country signals to me (at least) that there is more going on here than a few AB conservatives not being happy with the CPC.

cantuc said...

I have my proper glasses on now and i apologise for repeating what had already pretty much been said before I said it . You could be correct , much as Is like and respect Stephen Harper there are a few things starting to pis me off , not that I'm turning into a nd or god have mercy , a liberal liberal .

Blame Crash said...

"Times up" for the Alberta PC's and Stelmach.

Anyone with five bucks could join the PC party on the day before the leadership vote and actually get to have as much of a say as a life long member.

Of course the inevitable happened and the thousands of Liberals , NDPers, bureaucrats and unionists flooded the party with the pathetic result named "Premier Stelmach".

hunter said...

I posted the other day about the old Reformer MP's in Alberta not being visible in Parliament, especially on the HRC issue. They are sitting on their hands and doing nothing on an issue they could be leading, this is ticking me off.

Maybe other Albertans are feeling the same way. No representation from our MP's on issues that concern us here in Alberta.

Bec said...

I think this absolutely could have something to do with the Wildrose Alliance' surge.

I also think that some forget, my MP for example was the one that embarrassed the Conservatives over the Mulroney thing and we have Prentice, suggesting some rather unpopular movement on the environmental file. (the jury is out) but both those riding's are in the heart of 'oil patch dwellers'.

If it sticks, it should be a wake up call for them to pursue. I absolutely disagree with it having anything to do with some of the comments here. I'll leave it at that....

Gayle said...

Don Martin did publish a column the other day pointing out how much Harper is governing like a liberal. Convinced me to be more comfortable with him in government. Perhaps it had the opposite effect in Calgary?

Ardvark said...

Thanks Gayle. I can see the error of my ways and I am changing my thoughts on this. The CPC have lost support in Alberta on their own, and it has nothing at all to do with Stelmach.

Conversely the gains in Ontario have all to do with the CPC and nothing to do with McGuinty.

Ahhh, now I feel better.

Gayle said...

Glad to be of help AA. The moral of the story is if you want to govern Canada, best behave like a liberal. :)

Rich said...

This is a reflection of Albertans feelings for the Stelmach government, I do not think that it will affect the Prime Minister federally. Because all the support is not going to the provincial Liberals but to the Wildrose Alliance party a small C Conservative party: Traditionally, the Wildrose Alliance have been an urban centered party of late they are making head way in the rural communities which was a Stelmach strength.

Ardvark said...

I guess that is why Ignatieff is dying in the polls, he is not Liberal enough.