Friday, January 22, 2010

Prorogation Day in Canada.

If you were to consider the amount of ink used by the media on tomorrows "Prorogation day in Canada" one might actually believe that it will turn out to be more popular than "Hockey Night in Canada. That of course is wrong, but give credit to the MSM in this country for trying to promote something for them to cover during the traditional slow period in Ottawa that comes with the winter break.

I don't even want to hazard a guess as to what type of numbers we will see tomorrow but regardless of how many do show up, I think it is a pretty safe bet they can be broken down into the following groups:

The largest contingent of the 'protesters' will be your hard core Harper haters made up of mostly lefties who despise the PM and would complain that he is taking away jobs from doctors if he discovered the cure for cancer. This group is always a guarantee to show up at anything anti-conservative.

The next largest group would be the partisans aligned with specific political parties.

Many Greens can be expected to show up and in some cases they have even gone so far as to take part in the organization of this so called "NON PARTISAN" event.

The NDP will be out in force, which is to be expected, but at least Jack Layton has a plan; as unconstitutional as it may be. (Note to Iggy: Your coalition buddy is setting you up with his motion.) This group may be large as unions have money to organize and bus in the "grassroots".

The Liberals: Yes it is expected that many Liberals will be out for partisan gain trying to pull the wool over the eyes of Canadians by looking like they are against prorogation even though LPC policy says otherwise and their leader, Micheal Ignatieff, has stated he is in favour of keeping it.

Ignatieff it turns out was very much in favour of the PM proroguing the first time he did it back in 2008. For the MSM who just read that and have their doubts, please feel free to stick a microphone Ignatieff's way and ask him yourself. It would be hard for him to say that he was not in favour of it in 2008 when he has described the coalition as something so divisive that it would have caused a "permanent division" to Canadian society. You want something to cover MSM; just ask Iggy that question and watch him squirm.

All of the above combined will make up the bulk of the numbers that we see tomorrow; my guess is that they will make up about 90% of those in attendance, but one must also remember that most of these people would never vote conservative in the first place.

Of the remaining numbers, the one group that we should be concerned about is the small number that will attend, who are not there with a particular partisan axe to grind, that are honestly upset over the PM proroguing. This group can be divided into 2 sub groups with the first being the ones that are just sick of seeing politicians not working for any reason, and the other being the ones who have been convinced by the media that this prorogation is not a routine event and that it is an affront to democracy. There is no convincing the first bunch, they think all politicians are lazy, but I do believe that if the others learn the facts about prorogation being a much used, legal, and indeed a constitutional power I think the damage will be minimal. Do they really want to open up the constitution to take away this power? I doubt it very much that many do.

As for the small amount of those in attendance tomorrow who did not make it into the above groupings; their numbers will be made up mostly of media people and a handful of guys there just because they want to score with some dipper chick that was already planing to attend. The first group is potentially dangerous, while the second may very well turn out to be Conservative voters sometime in the future.

There you have it. Some honest analysis of the numbers that I doubt you will see anywhere in the MSM. Not because they are unable to do so, but rather because it is dangerous for the media to analyze the news that they themselves have shaped and intensely promoted for weeks now. The old adage applies: Don't become the story.

Oh and I have to add a quick thought on the detainee red herring we keep hearing about. In the end, the already 3 years old detainee story is going to turn out the same way the other so called "game changers" such as Chuck Cadman, in and out financing, H1N1, wafergate, and a host of others have turned out to be. Nothing more than Liberal games and smear.

For fun: A couple of bonus questions to ask the anti-prorogation types.

Asking any Liberal why they are there if their party and Iggy supports prorogation is an obvious one but if you want some real fun try asking the following.

Last year during the coalition crisis did you claim legitimacy for the coalition because of the constitution? If so, why are you now against that same constitution and the legitimacy of prorogation? Is there anything else you want to change in our constitution while we are opening it up?

And lastly please have a safe Prorogation Day in Canada and enjoy the wall to wall MSM coverage.

From The Ottawa Citizen and Susan Riley of all people :

He (Ignatieff) encouraged anti-prorogation organizers in a Facebook posting this week, and confirmed he will be attending Saturday's protest in Ottawa, but refuses to back Jack Layton's call for legislation limiting future use of prorogation. When asked to define his political values, he paused then replied: "I'm passionate about freedom." So was George W. Bush.

On the pressing issue of looming deficits, he told reporters it isn't his problem, it's Harper's problem -- and he, Ignatieff, isn't about to help his rival out of the swamp. (Never mind what happens to the rest of us, I guess.)

He continues to answer questions with questions, urge patience and promise a bold new vision any time now. He sounds like Karlheinz Schreiber: wait until next week, then the true story will emerge.

Iggy being compared to KHS. Classic!

ht BLY .


Bert said...

Hears hoping for the weather to be cold and windy, with some sleet thrown in for good measure.

CanadianSense said...

Like H1N1 the media have spent a great deal of energy hyping this up as a real story with non partisans being outraged.

The media are looking for a Katrina story to sink this government (ask Al Apps).

The media have lost their objectivity in covering the news for a more activists pro coalition stance. Who is making the decisions to run with these stories on a permanent basis month after month?

Is the media ownershp too concentrated, are they trying to keep their shrinking readership up by creating controversy and scandal?

Jen said...


The LPOC that corrupt stole prorogated parliament for months not 2wks-months are going to rally on themselves.

It will be nice to see someone with a large sign out lining:
TRUDEAU'S, Chretien etc length of time and years when they PROROGATED PARLIAMENT. And their reason for do so.

The LPOC and their media LOVE TO RALLY against themselves.

Calgary Junkie said...

This prorogue side-show will pale in comparison to the hugely entertaining main event, aka the budget.

The problem for Iggy is that his weak actions are way too disconnected from his over-the-top rhetoric. And that disconnect is again going to be laughingly (or painfully, if you're a Liberal) obvious when he supports Flaherty's budget. Which he will, guaranteed.

How ridiculous is he going to look then ? He's been slamming Harper on just about everything that's happened in the last year (see the partial list above, by AA). He beaks off about the $12 billion suruplus that the Libs "handed" Harper. He mocks Harper's statement about "markets not liking uncertainty". And now, with this prorogue, Harper is literally tearing apart the fabrics of our democracy.

Basically, professor Iggy is giving Harper a grade of F------, on every federal file. And he must know that Flaherty is going to put stuff in the budget that makes Lib MPs squirm (if not throw up), and some of their client groups will be screaming bloody murder, as their ox gets gored.

So how will Mr. Iggy justify letting "the evil, cruel dictator and village idiot" Harper (with his weak front bench, I forgot about that) keep governing ???

He's going to offer up the lame "but Canadians don't want an election". Let's see how the Parliamentary Press Gallery deals with that pathetic retreat. It's going to be the most entertaining show on Parliament Hill in the longest time.

The one thing that would make this budget movie a winner of ten oscars (instead of only four), is if some of the Lib MPs vote for, some against, and some abstain. Donolo's brain will explode, as he tries to spin that absurdity on top of all the other absurdities.

Anonymous said...

I predict those Facebookers will key it in from their computers. It takes effort and commitment to attend a rally in the middle of winter in Ottawa. Lightweight drama queens. Have political donations to the Liberals, NDP or Greens spiked? Nopes, Nadas and Noes. Mouthing platitudes and slogans won't pay the bills. Cheers. FernStAlbert

UsualSuspect said...

Exactly right CJ.

If anything, the Liberals are the ones most concerned about these poll numbers.

Everyone knows "steady as she goes" vs Iggy's tax hikes is an easy ten points from the grumpy middle in an election campaign.

Poke a couple sacred cows and Harper can shore up his base and embolden the NDP at the same time.

The trap is closing...

NB Tory Gal said...

Thank you for the post AA...putting it out there a bit more for the supporting our prime minister group.

Jen said...

The HOC gong show is shut down but the parliament is still at work.

It will be nice to see the PM, his ministers and staff members arrive at the same time while the rally is going on to be ask by some fly by night still asleep in the 90s, reporter "where are you going Harper(as they call PM)"

"To work" says the PM
"I thought you prorogued parliament so how come you are going to work" ask the FBN reporter.
"first off to answer your question "I did not Prorogued parliament, what I prorogued was the HOC."
"That's all, you mean to tell me that parliament is still at work but the 'gong show' in the HOC/Q/P is what you prorogued and only for 2wks-I don't blame you Mr. PM. If I was in your position, I would it down for a whole year. yet again,I am just a lousey reporter who should have done his research thoroughly on this matter than listen to the likes of CBC CTV. The next time I will follow my instincts"

"Do that and you will be surprise how well a job you have done. If you have any questions feel free to ask me. I won't forget this moment." says the PM.

maryT said...

Did you mention the union representation that will be there. If there is just one professional sign, this makes it a political rally, and all media promotion of same should be an election expense.
I would love to see some signs with pics of PET and Chretain,along with those of PMSH , calling them all dictators and hitlers for disregarding the will of parliament.
This protest has been planned for weeks, so it is not spontaneous. How long before the demonstrations against the coup attempt, and there was no fb page to urge people on, or media coverage supporting them. Big difference.
Have Mr Iggy or Layton thought of the backlash that could happen. These people apparently want the PM defeated, and if the opposition doesn't do it, will they turn on them.

Ardvark said...

Tomorrow is going to be all about astro-turf as Bob Rae once said about another rally.

Calgary Junkie said...

"If anything, the Liberals are the ones most concerned about these poll numbers"

They are also concerned about their money, or lack thereof.

As I've posted before:

The "$1.95 per vote" subsidy is paid to each Party in quarterly installments. The Libs have to wait until March 31st, to get their roughly $1.7 million.

Their "Thinker's Conference" is all about hitting up their deep-pocketed supporters for as much of the maximum $1,100 per year they can donate to the LPC.

Remember when Dion didn't have an airplane ready in early Sept, 2008 ? Airlines (and tv stations) want cash UP FRONT for holding airplanes and running political ads.

The LPC is extremely vulnerable, money-wise, as of early March. Harper knows it. The Libs know that Harper knows it. Harper is going to push them to the edge via Flaherty's budget.

The question is how.

wilson said...

He's going to offer up the lame "but Canadians don't want an election".

So what do the hundreds who are protesting want then?
Mr Iffy won't support legislation on prorogation,
so then what?
(And I do hope the turn out is huge.)

imo, the media and the LibDippers have created a situation they may regret.
The various protest groups DO want a new lefty government.
They will be demanding it.

Ready for that election Mr Iffy??

CanadianSense said...

I hope he removes the political party funding!

No more bailouts for the political parties who can get actual donations from people.

maryT said...

AA, re your comment at BLY, check out the protest in Lethbridge tomorrow, organized by the Lethbridge East constituency President of the NDP and the President of the Federal riding association President.
Lethbridge Herald, page A5-Prorogation rally set for Saturday.

Ardvark said...

Thanks Mary T! I suspect that there are a few more of these grassroots rallies that are being organized by political parties that we do not know about.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

This post is absolute gold, Ardvark.

This is my favourite line:

The largest contingent of the 'protesters' will be your hard core Harper haters made up of mostly lefties who despise the PM and would complain that he is taking away jobs from doctors if he discovered the cure for cancer.

Brilliant! And true.

Blame Crash said...

A stellar post AA.

My own read on this stunt is that it's a pretext to another coup attempt.

As far as the media goes, they are involved in this under cutting of democracy for two reasons.

It goes without saying what a disgusting bunch of leftist progressive supremacists they are, but the other reason they are promoting both this “protest” and the hoped for coup, has to do with monetary reasons.

If they help these crooks, they will be rewarded with their very own “brown paper bag” stuffed with tax payers money. Of course it will all be above board. They’ll receive their kick backs in one form or another.

Is their any doubt how corrupt our country is.

maryT said...

If the opposition defeats the government on the throne speech or budget, a non confidence motion, the PM must go to the GG to call an election.
No way the coaliton can ask to take over the government, after all their support re democracy in shambles protests tomorrow. What is the population of voting age Canadians. How many of those showing up tomorrow are under voting age.
Those showing up would never vote for the PM no matter what. Unless every person who voted for another party shows up, it is a tempest in a teapot.
How could they hijack the government after all their talk of democracy.
And does anyone thing that the GG would not grant an election, after all our help in Haiti.
And if MR iffy does not defeat the govt, what was all his yelling about. Those protestors could turn on him and the media.

Calgary Junkie said...

This full court press on Harper over the prorogue reminds of the full court press in Quebec during the last campaign, over the "cuts" to arts funding. That tag-team effort by the usual suspects was harmful, because we were in the middle of an election.

So this perogie kerfuffle isn't dangerous, as there's close to a zero percent chance of enough Opposition MPs voting against the budget. Let's not forget the 60+ MPs (from all Parties) who were first elected in June, 2004, and will desperately want to hang on to their sixth anniversary, so that their pensions become fully vested.

This perogie nonsense is all part of a longer term effort to demonize Harper, and bring his trust and competence numbers down. It's incomprehensible that this supposed "anger" by voters is real and can be sustained into an election, likely a year from now.

There will be Lib campaign ads at that time, rattling off all the "outrageous" things Harper has done, including this prorogue. But that will all just be preaching to the converted.

maryT said...

Too bad it isn't Lent, so I could give up perogies.
Apparently they are having a perogie eating thing in Vancouver tomorrow.
And what effect will all those Canadians protesting in London, Eng, LA and NYC have, except comparing those out in the cold with the Tamils and others protesting in Canada. But, it was in London that those greenpeace idiots climbed the roof. If they do it tomorrow, leave them there.

Rich said...

Calgary Junkie
"If anything, the Liberals are the ones most concerned about these poll numbers."

I may be wrong, but the only poll that I have seen was the EKOS which was done for the Toronto Star, which indicates to me that that poll is a bit skewered. Jean Lapierre on CTV mentioned that this prorogation was not even a factor in Quebec: the libs and Cons are still basically tied in Quebec with the majority of support going to the bloc. We know west of Ontario that Cons support is greatest so that leaves Greater Toronto area and the maritimes. I have talked to my brother in Oakiville and he indicated to me that in the 905 area code Canadians are moving over in droves to the Cons. So that leaves the 416 area code which has been traditionally Liberal supporters.

When I see more consistently more than one poll favouring the Libs then I will start to get worried.

If Iggy & libs are so certain of the comeback, they will have two opportunities to defeat the government, first on the throne speech on March 3rd and then on budget later on in march. I imagine that PMSH will call Iggy's bluff again.

frmgrl said...

Rich, EKOS does polling for CBC. Angus Reid polls for TorStar.

Alberta Girl said...

"Tomorrow is going to be all about astro-turf as Bob Rae once said about another rally."

Except this one really is an "astro-turf" whereas that "other one" was born out of anger and didn't take three weeks to organize!

And Blame Crash...I totally agree, this is a step towards another coup attempt...I have thought that since Iggy made his "alternative" speech.