Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Nanos Poll tomorrow.

Nick Nanos has another poll coming put tomorrow that puts the Conservatives ahead with a strong increase in Quebec, shows Ignatieff has already gone stale, and shows that the NDP is going to be in real trouble if an election comes soon.

So in an effort to save electrons I will post the Liberal response a day early.

'It is an outlier poll'.

Too bad for the spin meisters that Nanos has the best record for accuracy in the last 2 elections.


Listen for yourself: Link available here (for a limited time) Did I hear Nik say that if you look outside the island of Montreal that CPC support could be near 30%?


Update: Here are the poll results (PDF)

24 comments:

David said...

Not that I really like playing the Devil’s advocate, but we aren’t in an election yet, right? So things may change. Plus, how recent will those polls be? Pre-Iggy’s ads or post?

Dan said...

How do you know about this?

CanadianSense said...

I was early defending another Pollster from Liberal Partisans. The best part it was Peter Donalo.

Clearly his background and bio show his Alberta neo con roots.....Too funny.

http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_people/p_donolo.asp

Cheers

Reid said...

Dan:

Nik Nanos was on the radio today discussing it.

Ardvark said...

Of course things may change and that is why I rarely do the poll thing here on the blog. If I am correct it is from the last week so the ads were not yet out but the election threats were.

Dan I cannot reveal my sources but he has a radio show on Corus in the afternoon (local time)and his initials are C.A.

Ardvark said...

Thanks for spoiling the perception about my psychic abilities Reid =)

Bec said...

The poll, from all pre-released info, has been done SINCE the Liberal election threat.

The ads, of course may play a part but those questions it would seem were part of the questioning.

The government, WAS not responsible for the recession, and the poll #'s will apparently reflect that opinion. Thus making the Liberal ad rhetoric, a big waste of 2 Mil!!

maryT said...

Dan, turn your radio on. If one is to doubt numbers, how do we know the lib membership (pd) is really 100,000. Is there a list out there somewhere to prove it.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Well, you sure do have the Liberal talking points down pat, Ardvark.

Ardvark said...

Don't forget I once was in the running for Liberal leader =)

Calgary Junkie said...

(cross-posted from AGWN)

NIk Nanos on Charles Adler, Bring up Tues, Sept 08 @ 12:35 PM ...

"Ya, actually the latest Nanos tracking that we've just completed, and we'll be releasing tomorrow [Wednesday], but we'll be chatting about it now, really shows a noticeable drop in support for the New Democrats, and that support has dropped in Atlantic Canada and Quebec and that Conservative support is on the rise as people think about a potential election ..."

Later on, Nik says we're at 19 % in Quebec, mostly off the island of Montreal.

Iggy to his caucus: "double Ooops"

link

maryT said...

Don't give up your ambition, after iggy is slaughtered in the coming election, you may be their only hope for a leader. Do tell them no, you missed your chance.
Does Iggy realize that this time he will have to fight for every vote, he and the liberals will not be crowned (unless with thorns)
It will be his first and only campaign as he was parachuted into a very safe riding, kicking out a woman in the process, threw Dion under the bus and received the prize, all without a campaign. Oh, I forgot, he did campaign for leader and lost to Dion.

cantuc said...

i know this is a bit off topic but what the hell is with ctv lately ? They say Ignegative was elected leader of the liberal party one day , then 2 days later they have Jay Hill getting a sex change ,and they can't even get the bloody date right . ---Power Play : Monday, Sept. 8 : Jill Hill, Government House Leader, on the economy and Jean LaPierre on battleground Quebec
Monday, Sept. 8
Any , sorry fer the interuption , smoke if you got em

Calgary Junkie said...

Okay, I just watched a replay of Jay Hill interviewed by Tom Clark. At the end, Clark asked for any details on when the various motions and bills and stuff will be voted on in the House.

I'm guessing Clark was curious about what date the home-reno Ways and Means motion would come up. The conventional wisdom from pundits like Don Martin is that the home-reno vote will take place around Sept 17th.

But Jay wasn't specific about any votes on any dates. He gave the bolierplate answer about us wanting to govern, etc etc.

Sooooooo, what's going on ? My guess is that Jay is keeping Ralph on edge as to when that home-reno thing gets voted on. It's POSSIBLE that Jay will schedule the home-reno vote for AFTER Sept 28th, which is a double-edged sword for him to play. But then I thought, nah, Harper is going to play it all straight up. Stick to the narrative that he's working on the economy, don't give the opps ammunition that he's playing games.

Anyway, my head is spinning, trying to sort out all the ifs, ands or buts in the next week.
With the polls looking good for us, Harper is right to keep the opps guessing, let them twist in the wind some more.

Anonymous said...

Summary of the results is here:

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE5835R420090908

The Nanos poll put the Conservatives at 37.5 percent of committed voters and the Liberals at 33.4 percent. A month earlier it had the Liberals ahead by 2.5 points.

It put the NDP at 14.8 percent, the Bloc at 9.7 percent and the Greens at 4.6 percent. However, it found one in four voters were now undecided, up from one out of six.

maryT said...

Tax credit or not, I will be putting a new roof on my house and garage. Why, because the insurance company said, no new roof, no insurance. Guess there is a lot of that going on.
And what happened to that liberal senate bill making pre-writ advertising illegal.

mystereeoso said...

And what happened to that liberal senate bill making pre-writ advertising illegal.

WHAT?

Ardvark said...

M you really do have an issue with staying on topic don't you. The PM did not get punished from the electorate for calling an election last year, but somehow I think if we have one this year Iggy is going to pay the price as the polls are starting to reflect.

maryT said...

Liberal bill aims to end pre-election ad binges

Updated: Tue May. 26 2009 5:16:45 PM

The Canadian Press

OTTAWA — The Liberals have introduced a bill in the Senate aimed at stopping political parties from going on pre-election advertising binges.

Senator Dennis Dawson's bill - which is aimed at the cash-rich Tories - comes amid renewed election speculation on Parliament Hill.

If Iggy can't follow his own parties rules, why should we believe anything he says.
Hey M, does that answer your question,. Google for the rest of the story.

mystereeoso said...

Yes, it was introduced but was it passed? Once again we have a discussion devoid of the greater context or did you not realize all bets are off on account of the 300 million pound elephant in the room...

mystereeoso said...

So back to the poll and the other elephant in the room - a quarter of the electorate isn't sayin' which way they're going to vote.

Ardvark said...

I guess if you can't take a hint so I will say it again. Stay on topic

Iggy was trying to back peddle from his support of GWB and the Iraq war. That was the context of the theatre comment, but was his support 'theatre' or his back peddling?

Ardvark said...

As for that off topic elephant, even you are not that foolish as to think that the case is going to get anywhere. BTW someone tried this last year did they not, and wasn't it tossed out?

maryT said...

Decima results at Bourque
Conservatives 34%
libs 31%
ndp 15
green 10
bloc 8