Monday, September 28, 2009

Cauchon vs. Mulcair

New poll up on the sidebar: Who will win in Outremont, Thomas Mulcair or Martin Cauchon?

So please vote and feel free to drop a comment below and tell us why you voted the way you did.

My personal thoughts are that Mulcair gets re-elected. I know this goes against the thinking of lots of Liberals out there who now believe that Outremont is in the bag with the return of Cauchon, but I think that is more wishful thinking rather than based on anything factual.

Here are a couple of reasons why.

First off Mulcair already has the job of MP in Outremont and the power of incumbency should never be underestimated. This will be diminished somewhat by the fact that Cauchon was once the MP for the riding, but not enough to neutralize it completely. Advantage Mulcair.

Mulcair has to be considered a star candidate more so than Cauchon would be. Mulcair is the only NDP member from Quebec, which makes him very high profile no matter what, and there is
a strong chance that he may be end up as the next leader of the NDP. While some have suggested that Cauchon himself may be working towards the leadership of the LPC, that is not something that can really be used to his advantage in a campaign without causing problems and ruffling the feathers of current leader Michael Ignatieff. We all know that this is probably Jack Layton's kick at the cat and it is no secret Mulcair wants the job, and while Cauchon may want the leaders job as well, there is no way he or his people can touch the subject with a 10ft poll come election time without negative repercussions. Advantage Mulcair.

The last and perhaps the biggest reason that I see for a Mulcair victory is the baggage factor. Mulcair will be traveling light in an election while Cauchon comes with more than a Samsonite sales rep. The past is going to be inescapable for team Cauchon and no matter how hard they try to make the past a non issue, it will be, and you can bet that both the NDP and the press are going to make sure of that. Big advantage Mulcair.

What do you think?

Update: Speaking of baggage....


Roy Eappen said...

Don't forget our CPC Candidate and my good friend Rodolphe Husny! He would an excellent MP from Outremont.

maryT said...

Who is going to run in the nomination race, or will Cauchon be the only candidate.
See Codere has been thrown under the bus, where he belongs.
But you know what they say about hell hath no fury-he could be a very dangerous for the liberals. And what about strategic voting.

Bec said...

I'm with Roy on this one, of course but frankly is it such a stretch that a strong Conservative candidate could come up the middle in such a high profile riding?

There isn't much difference in the politics of these 2 left wing candidates so I predict, Outremont will be the riding to watch but it won't be for a while.

Jack, will not want to risk losing this MP. No election!

Southern Quebec said...

Interesting that the Husny site is only in French, non?

Roy Eappen said...

Rodolphe speaks excellent English and I will ask him about having a site in English as well. Most Quebec Anglophones speak and read French

CanadianSense said...

I refuse to drink the Kool-aid.

The chance for the CPC to gain traction in this seat with NDP/Liberals are 3 to 1.

CPC polling 10%, NDP, Liberals +30%

Next thing I will hear the Liberals are going to win a seat in Alberta and the Liberals have a clear position on anything.

Ardvark said...

My bad Dr.Roy, Husny's name should have been included in the poll.

While I think it would be a stretch to expect possible a CPC win in the riding, the other candidates names should have been included.

Rodolphe Husny said...


@ Southern Quebec

Thank you for your interest.

My blog is only in french because it's not my official web site as a conservative candidate.

New web site in french and english very soon.

Ardvark said...

Now I really do have egg on my face.

Rodolphe, my apologies and best wishes in the upcoming election.

Anonymous said...

All, let's change the face of the Outremont riding and vote for Rodolphe (Conservatives). Let's make this election one that all of Canada will take notice!