EKOS Poll Dancing

Joel from PTBC takes a look at the last 2, err make that 3 EKOS polls here.

Take a read. Like most of what Joel puts up it is well worth the time to do so.


I wonder why the Sept 1-7 poll was never made public on the 9th as is typical with EKOS CBC polls, and why the info showed up in the 16th data?

Maybe the CBC was trying to save some cash and didn't want to cough up that week or maybe it was some other reason, but I doubt we will ever get the answer or find out if our publicly funded broadcaster ponied up for that week or not. My guess is that their deal with EKOS, spending our tax dollars, is one of those things that the CBC wants to keep secret from us.

Nik Nanos thinks dissent will kill the Liberals election chances

Nik Nanos thinks dissent will kill the Liberals election chances.



Maybe they need to start a culture war to save the day. Oops, wrong pollster.


Related: I wonder if KoryVision is looking for an in house pollster?

BTW KoryVison looks to have hired Krista Erickson, Yes that Krista Erickson.

They have a handful of hires and they are already more balanced than the CBC!

Ouch! Stelmach leads PC's to lowest level of support in 16 years

The Alberta PC Party is at the lowest level of support in 16 years according to a new Environics survey which came out on Wednesday, only days before Premier Stelmach faces a leadership review: From The National Post.

An independent survey of 1,000 adult Albertans (840 decided voters) conducted by Environics, and provided exclusively to the Calgary Herald, reveals the Wildrose Alliance party has firmly cemented itself in second place provincewide -- and has passed the Tories as the favoured party in Calgary.

The telephone poll, conducted Oct. 19-31, finds that 34% of decided voters would cast a ballot for Mr. Stelmach and his Progressive Conservatives if an election were held now, compared to 28% for the fledgling Wildrose Alliance and new leader Danielle Smith.

The Liberals are in third with the backing of 20% of voters, followed by the NDP at 9% and the Greens at 8%.

It might be a real rough weekend for the Premier.

ht daveberta.ca

Latest EKOS poll reveals a big problem for the conservatives.

By now you have all seen the numbers from the latest EKOS poll and it does not look good for the Liberals anywhere in the country. Anywhere in the country that is except for ALBERTA.

Yes your eyes are not deceiving you, I said Alberta.

Take a look at the numbers: While the conservatives are up EVERYWHERE in the country, and some times by as much as 5%, the conservatives actually went down in Alberta 2.1%! Worse yet are the Calgary numbers where the conservatives have actually went down a whopping 13.9%!

If this keeps up PM Harper had better be careful or he might not get re-elected in his own riding of Calgary Southwest.



Why is this happening? The answer is simple.



This guy is so toxic that he has done the impossible in the most conservative leaning province in Canada; he managed to actually derail the Harper juggernaut that has swept across the entire country including Quebec and Atlantic Canada. That is some accomplishment.

Sorry Rob, I know you are a supporter of his but there is NO other possible explanation as to why this has happened.

There are none so blind...

There are none so blind as those that will not see. ( warning: a few WK links appear in this post)

Keep on doing what you are doing because so far it is working great and it does not take a "strategist" to see it either.


Warren sure seems to have a hate on for the National Post doesn't he. It appears that he has a hate on for them almost as much as he did for Paul Martin.

You remember Paul Martin right? The guy who became Liberal leader by instigating backroom shenanigans to hurry the departure of Jean Chretien. The guy that sent out the recruiters to the US to bring Ignatieff to Canada, and the same guy who then appointed Ignatieff in Etobicoke Lakeshore over the opposition from the Liberal riding association.


I guess that some hate lasts longer than others, but if you ask me there appears to be something very odd about the entire situation.

Cauchon vs. Mulcair

New poll up on the sidebar: Who will win in Outremont, Thomas Mulcair or Martin Cauchon?

So please vote and feel free to drop a comment below and tell us why you voted the way you did.

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My personal thoughts are that Mulcair gets re-elected. I know this goes against the thinking of lots of Liberals out there who now believe that Outremont is in the bag with the return of Cauchon, but I think that is more wishful thinking rather than based on anything factual.

Here are a couple of reasons why.

First off Mulcair already has the job of MP in Outremont and the power of incumbency should never be underestimated. This will be diminished somewhat by the fact that Cauchon was once the MP for the riding, but not enough to neutralize it completely. Advantage Mulcair.

Mulcair has to be considered a star candidate more so than Cauchon would be. Mulcair is the only NDP member from Quebec, which makes him very high profile no matter what, and there is
a strong chance that he may be end up as the next leader of the NDP. While some have suggested that Cauchon himself may be working towards the leadership of the LPC, that is not something that can really be used to his advantage in a campaign without causing problems and ruffling the feathers of current leader Michael Ignatieff. We all know that this is probably Jack Layton's kick at the cat and it is no secret Mulcair wants the job, and while Cauchon may want the leaders job as well, there is no way he or his people can touch the subject with a 10ft poll come election time without negative repercussions. Advantage Mulcair.

The last and perhaps the biggest reason that I see for a Mulcair victory is the baggage factor. Mulcair will be traveling light in an election while Cauchon comes with more than a Samsonite sales rep. The past is going to be inescapable for team Cauchon and no matter how hard they try to make the past a non issue, it will be, and you can bet that both the NDP and the press are going to make sure of that. Big advantage Mulcair.

What do you think?

Update: Speaking of baggage....

Nanos Poll tomorrow.

Nick Nanos has another poll coming put tomorrow that puts the Conservatives ahead with a strong increase in Quebec, shows Ignatieff has already gone stale, and shows that the NDP is going to be in real trouble if an election comes soon.

So in an effort to save electrons I will post the Liberal response a day early.

'It is an outlier poll'.

Too bad for the spin meisters that Nanos has the best record for accuracy in the last 2 elections.


Listen for yourself: Link available here (for a limited time) Did I hear Nik say that if you look outside the island of Montreal that CPC support could be near 30%?


Update: Here are the poll results (PDF)

Quebec Leans Conservative.

How else can you explain Ignatieff's alleged popularity in the Province of Quebec?

CTV.ca : Changing Headlines

I happened to read about a new poll that was released yesterday and did a little Google search trying to find a full story on it. This is what I found.


"Trouble ahead for Harper's Tories, poll suggests" That doesn't sound so good does it? But clicking in the link this is what I find at CTV.

"Tories preferred on leadership and major issues: Poll" A totally changed headline to a story about the exact same poll. Only this one seems to be indicating the complete opposite from the first one, and after reading the story I have to wonder just how the first headline ever made it's way onto the CTV .ca website in the first place.

Here is the story. Please read it for yourself, and see if you can figure out how anyone could conclude that there is trouble ahead for Harper's Tories.

The Canadian Press

OTTAWA -- A new poll suggests Canadians prefer Conservatives over Liberals when it comes to leadership and most major issues -- even though that preference has not translated into popular support for the governing party.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggests 43 per cent of Canadians think the Tories, with Stephen Harper at the helm, have the best leader to be prime minister.

Only 22 per cent of those polled picked the Liberals, led by Stephane Dion.

Moreover, the Tories came out well ahead of the Liberals when respondents were asked which party is best equipped to deal with the economy (40 per cent to 22 per cent), taxes (41 per cent to 20 per cent) and crime (39 per cent to 18 per cent).

They also enjoyed a smaller two- to three-point advantage over the Liberals on foreign affairs, energy and health care.

When asked generally which party cares most about the issues closest to respondents' hearts, respondents favoured the Tories 35 per cent to 32.

The survey respondents preferred the Liberals over the Tories on only two issues: the environment (36 per cent to 24) and poverty (32 per cent to 25).

That appears to reflect Dion's summer-long campaign to promote his so-called Green Shift -- a complicated climate-change plan that would impose a carbon tax on fossil fuels, offset by income- and business-tax cuts and tax benefits to the poor, elderly and rural dwellers. The plan includes measures aimed at halving the number of Canadians living in poverty.

Dion has said the green shift will be the centrepiece of the Liberals' platform for the next election campaign. But the poll results suggest he may be in danger of being seen as a one-trick pony.

"I believe that is a definite risk for Dion right now," said a Harris-Decima senior vice-president, Jeff Walker.

Although Liberals tout The Green Shift as an economic plan, as well as a plan for tackling climate change, Walker said it appears to be seen primarily as an environmental initiative thus far and that's "too narrow a definition."

"Especially in this (weakening) economy, people need to know and hear that there's some plan for the economy."

Despite the Conservatives' advantage on the economy and other issues of importance to voters, the most recent Harris-Decima survey suggests the Tories remain mired in a virtual tie with the Liberals, with 32 per cent and 33 per cent support respectively.

Walker said the Tories appear to be held back by their inability to gain support in urban and suburban Ontario and Quebec, where the Liberals seem to be the "default choice" for voters. But that could change during the course of an election campaign, which could come as early as this fall.

Leadership becomes critically important during a campaign and Harper, having led his party through two elections, is far more experienced than Dion, who is preparing for his first campaign as leader.

Moreover, Walker said the preference Canadians are showing for Conservatives on most issues is really a reflection of the greater trust they have in Harper as a leader.

"Right now Conservatives are very solid in a whole bunch of areas and that's almost a surrogate for leadership. That's why it really will come down to the campaign," he said.

The poll suggests only 14 per cent of Canadians think it's time for an election. Thirty-eight per cent think an election this fall would be "a waste of time" but a plurality -- 41 per cent -- said they can live with the prospect.

The telephone phone poll of just more than 1,000 Canadians was conducted Aug. 7-10 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points 19 times in 20.


For your added enjoyment; watch this clip titled http://watch.ctv.ca/news/latest/trouble-ahead/#clip83578 for Craig Oliver's take on this latest poll and whether or not he thinks there is trouble ahead for the Tories.




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